Business cycle synchronization and the euro : a wavelet analysis

• Author(s): Conraria, Luís Aguiar ; Soares, M. J.
• Date: 2010
• Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/11658
• Origin: RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
• Subject(s): Business cycle synchronization; Multidimensional scaling; European Union integration; Continuous wavelet transform; Wavelet distance matrix
• Document Type: Research paper
• Language: English

Description

We use wavelet analysis to study cycle synchronization across the EU-15 and the Euro-12 countries. Based on the wavelet transform, we propose a metric to measure and test for business cycles synchronization. Several conclusions emerge. France and Germany form the core of the Euro land, being the most synchronized countries with the rest of Europe. Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Finland do not show statistically relevant degrees of synchronization with Europe. We also show that some countries (like Spain) have a French accent, while others have a German accent (e.g. Austria). Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the French business cycle has been leading the German business cycle as well as the rest of Europe. Among the countries that may, in the future, join the Euro, the Czech Republic seems the most promising candidate.