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Dynamics of CO2 price drivers

Using data from Phase II-III of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme, we characterize CO2 prices interrelation with energy prices (gas, electricity and coal), carbon allowances substitute prices and with economic activity index. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the responses of CO2 prices to impulses in other variables, observing duration and direction of the impact. Our main findings include...

Carbon financial markets : a time-frequency analysis of CO2 price drivers

We characterize the interrelation of CO2 prices with energy prices (gas and electricity), and with economic activity. Previous studies have relied on time-domain techniques, such as Vector Auto-Regressions. In this study, we use multivariate wavelet analysis, which operates in the time-frequency domain. Wavelet analysis provides convenient tools to distinguish relations at particular frequencies and at particul...

Oil shocks and the euro as an optimum currency area

We use wavelet analysis to study the impact of the Euro adoption on the oil price macroeconomy relation in the Euroland. We uncover evidence that the oil-macroeconomy relation changed in the past decades. We show that after the Euro adoption some countries became more similar with respect to how their macroeconomies react to oil shocks. However, we also conclude that the adoption of the common currency did not ...

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election...

NIPE WP-14/2013 ; In most instances of collective decision-making, it cannot be expected that all persons who are entitled to vote will end up doing so. This has led institutional designers, out of concerns with the “legitimacy” of decisions, to introduce quorum requirements. A prominent example of this can be found in the context of direct democracy mechanisms, such as referenda and initiatives. We discuss th...

Emprego e TSU : o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos traba...

NIPE Policy Paper ; Nos últimos anos, vários países reduziram as contribuições das empresas para a Segurança Social com o objectivo de melhorar a competitividade externa das economias e estimular a criação de emprego. Nesta linha, o governo português propôs uma descida da contribuição das empresas para a Segurança Social ao mesmo tempo que aumenta a contribuição dos trabalhadores, resultando num aumento das co...

Emprego e TSU : o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos traba...

O presente conjunto de dados reporta-se ao estudo: “Emprego e TSU - O impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos trabalhadores e das empresas” (acessível em: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/20239), desenvolvido pelo Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE).

As sondagens e os resultados eleitorais em Portugal

The continuous wavelet transform : a primer

Economists are already familiar with the Discrete Wavelet Transform. However, a body of work using the Continuous Wavelet Transform has also been growing. We provide a self-contained summary on continuous wavelet tools, such as the Continuous Wavelet Transform, the Cross-Wavelet, the Wavelet Coherency and the Phase-Difference. Furthermore, we generalize the concept of simple coherency to Partial Wavelet Coheren...

Business cycle synchronization and the Euro : a wavelet analysis

We use wavelet analysis to study business cycle synchronization across the EU-15 and the Euro-12 countries. Based on the wavelet transform, we propose a metric to measure and test for business cycles synchronization. Several conclusions emerge. France and Germany form the core of the Euro land, being the most synchronized countries with the rest of Europe. Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Finland do not show stati...

Forecasting spanish elections

The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core politi...