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The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
Pina, Álvaro; Venes, NunoThis paper analyses the track record of fiscal forecasts reported by 15 European countries in the context of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. For the budget balance, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and interest payments, we study the statistical properties of forecast errors and their politico-institutional determinants. While errors in interest and GFCF expenditure present few systematic patterns, budget ...
Political and Institutional Determinants of the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: E...
Venes, NunoIn this paper, we analyse the role of political and institutional variables on the cyclical patterns of central government expenditure and revenue. Working with a sample of 38 OECD and Latin-American countries in 1960-2003, we find that higher levels of income inequality are associated with stronger expenditure procyclicality, and that better institutions do not seem to mitigate this effect. IMF interventions a...
Efeitos não keynesianos da política orçamental: evidência empírica para Portugal
Venes, Nuno Miguel SimõesMestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira ; A questão dos efeitos macroeconómicos da política orçamental tem gerado uma controvérsia sem fim entre as escolas de pensamento económico. Se por um lado, os keynesianos defendem a ocorrência de efeitos positivos e persistentes resultantes de políticas de carácter mais expansionista, os defensores da chamada «perspectiva alemã» advogam precisamente o contrário. De ...
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