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Public spending and growth : the role of institutions
Morozumi, Atsuyoshi; Veiga, Francisco JoséNIPE WP 11/2014 ; This paper examines the role of institutions in the nexus between public spending and economic growth. Using a newly assembled dataset of 80 countries over the 1970-2010 period with disaggregated public spending, we show that only when institutions prompt governments to be accountable to the general public, does the capital component of public spending significantly promote growth, especiall...
Instituições, estabilidade política e desempenho económico implicações para Por...
Veiga, Francisco JoséO presente capítulo analisa a relação entre instituições, estabilidade política e crescimento económico no contexto dos 25 anos que se seguiram à adesão de Portugal à Comunidade Económica Europeia (CEE), com vista a determinar em que medida a economia portuguesa poderia ter tido um melhor desempenho se as instituições e o grau de estabilidade política do país fossem equivalentes às dos nossos parceiros europeus...
Government size, composition of public expenditure, and economic development
Martins, Susana Campos; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper analyzes the effects of government size and of the composition of public expenditure on economic development. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models, on a sample covering up to 156 countries and 5-year periods from 1980 to 2010, we find that government size as a percentage of GDP has a quadratic (inverted U-shaped) effect on the growth rate of the Human Development Index...
Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?
Martins, Rodrigo; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. The...
Turnout and the modeling of economic conditions : evidence from Portuguese elec...
Martins, Rodrigo Caldeira de Almeida; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper analyzes the impact of economic conditions on voter turnout at Portuguese legislative and municipal elections. We use four extensive datasets to estimate an economic turnout model in which local economic variables are included in quadratic form, so that non-linear effects can be taken into account. The first two datasets cover all mainland municipalities (currently 278), from 1979 to 2005. The other ...
How does political instability affect economic growth?
Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco JoséThe purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we f...
Economic voting in portuguese municipal elections
Martins, Rodrigo Caldeira de Almeida; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper analyses the impact of economic conditions on Portuguese local electoral outcomes. We use two extensive datasets to estimate an economic voting model which accounts for the possibility that different levels of government have different levels of responsibility for economic outcomes and for clarity of government responsibility. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is...
Intergovernmental fiscal transfers as pork barrel
Veiga, Linda Gonçalves; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper simultaneously analyses the determinants of intergovernmental fiscal transfers and the votes that these transfers earn in subsequent legislative elections in Portugal. Results suggest that election year increases in transfers by the central government to municipalities secure added votes, and that these transfers are targeted at jurisdictions where the government faces risk of losing support.
How does political instability affect economic growth?
Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco JoséThe purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we f...
The political economy of seigniorage
Aisen, Ari; Veiga, Francisco JoséWhile most economists agree that seigniorage is one way governments finance deficits, there is less agreement about the political, institutional and economic reasons for relying on it. This paper investigates the main political and institutional determinants of seigniorage using panel data on about 100 countries, for the period 1960–1999. Estimates show that greater political instability leads to higher seignio...
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