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Optimal alarm systems for FIAPARCH processes
Costa, C; Scotto, MG; Pereira, IIn this work, an optimal alarm system is developed to predict whether a financial time series modeled via Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (FIAPARCH) models, up/downcrosses some particular level and give an alarm whenever this crossing is predicted. The paper presents classical and Bayesian methodology for producing optimal alarm systems. Both methodologies are illustrated and their performance com...
Integer-valued autoregressive processes with periodic structure
Monteiro, M; Scotto, MG; Pereira, IIn this paper the periodic integer-valued autoregressive model of order one with period T, driven by a periodic sequence of independent Poisson-distributed random variables, is studied in some detail. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this model are discussed. Moreover, parameter estimation is also addressed. Specifically, the methods of estimation under analysis are the method of moments, least...
Optimal alarm systems for count processes
Monteiro, M; Pereira, I; Scotto, MGIn many phenomena described by stochastic processes, the implementation of an alarm system becomes fundamental to predict the occurrence of future events. In this work we develop an alarm system to predict whether a count process will upcross a certain level and give an alarm whenever the upcrossing level is predicted. We consider count models with parameters being functions of covariates of interest and varyin...
On the non-negative first-order exponential bilinear time series model
Pereira, I; Scotto, MGIn this paper the bilinear model BL(1,0,1,1) driven by exponential distributed innovations is studied in some detail. Conditions under which the model is strictly stationary as well as some properties of the stationary distribution are discussed. Moreover, parameter estimation is also addressed. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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