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Turnout and the modeling of economic conditions : evidence from Portuguese elec...
Martins, Rodrigo Caldeira de Almeida; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper analyzes the impact of economic conditions on voter turnout at Portuguese legislative and municipal elections. We use four extensive datasets to estimate an economic turnout model in which local economic variables are included in quadratic form, so that non-linear effects can be taken into account. The first two datasets cover all mainland municipalities (currently 278), from 1979 to 2005. The other ...
Mayors’ reelection choice and the economy : evidence from Portugal
Castro, Vítor; Martins, Rodrigo Caldeira de AlmeidaUsing a data set that covers all Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1979-2005, this study performs an empirical analysis of the economic determinants of Mayors' choice to run for another term. The literature on the subject is mainly centered on the United States and, as far as we know, no papers are found addressing the economic factors of this choice. Probit panel estimations show that local eco...
Análise económica do comportamento eleitoral em Portugal.
Martins, Rodrigo Caldeira de AlmeidaTese de doutoramento em Economia (Teoria Económica e Economia Internacional) apresentada à Fac. de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra.
Economic voting in portuguese municipal elections
Martins, Rodrigo Caldeira de Almeida; Veiga, Francisco JoséThis paper analyses the impact of economic conditions on Portuguese local electoral outcomes. We use two extensive datasets to estimate an economic voting model which accounts for the possibility that different levels of government have different levels of responsibility for economic outcomes and for clarity of government responsibility. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is...
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