Encontrados 7 documentos, a visualizar página 1 de 1
Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election...
Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Magalhães, Pedro C.; Vanberg, Christoph A.NIPE WP-14/2013 ; In most instances of collective decision-making, it cannot be expected that all persons who are entitled to vote will end up doing so. This has led institutional designers, out of concerns with the “legitimacy” of decisions, to introduce quorum requirements. A prominent example of this can be found in the context of direct democracy mechanisms, such as referenda and initiatives. We discuss th...
Forecasting spanish elections
Magalhães, Pedro C.; Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core politi...
Cycles in politics : wavelet analysis of political time-series
Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Magalhães, Pedro C.; Soares, M. J.Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time-series. Controversies about cycles, however, tend to revolve about an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address: the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time-series. This has led to two main consequences. On the one hand, proponent...
Synchronism in electoral cycles : how united are the United States?
Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Magalhães, Pedro C.; Soares, M. J.The role of national, sectional, state, and local forces in driving electoral outcomes in the United States has remained a matter of considerable indeterminacy in the American politics literature. In what concerns House elections, different approaches and methods have yielded widely divergent results. In what concerns presidential elections, considerable doubts remain about the timing and the plausible causes o...
On waves in war and elections wavelet analysis of political time-series
Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Magalhães, Pedro C.; Soares, M. J.Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most established weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in time series data. However, such techniques are only appropriate when periodic components are time invariant. This has led some scholars to disregard the possibility of irregular cycles. We aim to contribute to further reconsideration of the possibility of cycles in political phenomena by introducing...
Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout
Conraria, Luís Aguiar; Magalhães, Pedro C.What is the impact of different referenda designs on the willingness of the electorate to vote? In this article, we focus on quorum requirements. We use a rational choice-voting model to demonstrate that certain types of quorum requirements change the incentives each elector faces. In particular, participation quorums induce electors who oppose changes in the status quo and expect to be in the minority to absta...
Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism : forecasting the portuguese general ...
Magalhães, Pedro C.; Conraria, Luís AguiarElectoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for t...
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