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How Fama went wrong : measures of multivariate kurtosis for the identification ...

This paper investigates the common intuition suggesting that during crises the shape of the financial market clearly differentiates from that of random walk processes. In this sense, it challenges the analysis of the nature of financial markets proposed by Fama and his associates. For this, a geometric approach is proposed in order to define the patterns of change of the market and a measure of multivariate kur...

Should The Widest Cleft in Statistics - How and Why Fisher opposed Neyman and P...

The paper investigates the "widest cleft", as Savage put it, between frequencists in the foundation of modern statistics: that opposing R.A. Fisher to Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson. Apart from deep personal confrontation through their lives, these scientists could not agree on methodology, on definitions, on concepts and on tools. Their premises and their conclusions widely differed and the two groups they insp...

Trouble Ahead - The Subprime Crisis as Evidence of a New Regime in the Stock Ma...

Bargaining Clouds, or Ma thematics as a Metaphoric Exploration of the Unexpected

The dynamics of speculative markets: the case of Portugal's PSI20

The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 for the last 33 years, considering the population of all companies present in the index for the whole period. Using a stochastic geometry tech¬nique and defining a robust index of the dynamics of the market struc¬ture, which is able to provide information about the intensity of the crises, the paper proposes a seismographic classification of the crash...

The Geometry of Crashes - A Measure of the Dynamics of Stock Market Crises

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose, which is a robust index of the dynamics of the market structure and provides information on the intensity and the sectoral impact of the crises. With this measure, we analyze the effects of som...

The influence of experimental and computational economics: Economics back to th...

Economics has been a most puzzling science, namely since the neoclassical revolution defined the legitimate procedures for theorisation and quantification. Its epistemology has based on farce: decisive tests are not applied on dare predictions. As a consequence, estimation has finally been replaced by simulation, and empirical tests have been substituted by non-disciplined exercises of comparison of models with...