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Sovereign default probabilities within the european crisis

Mestrado em Matemática Financeira ; In this thesis we assess the real default probabilities of three groups of European sovereigns - peripheral, central and safe haven - in order to get a forward looking measure of the market sentiment about their default, as well as their evolution within the current European crisis. We follow Moody's CDS-implied EDF Credit Measures and Fair-Value Spreads methodology by extra...