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On the Final Size of Epidemics with Seasonality

We first study an SIR system of differential equations with periodic coefficients describing an epidemic in a seasonal environment. Unlike in a constant environment, the final epidemic size may not be an increasing function of the basic reproduction number ℛ0 or of the initial fraction of infected people. Moreover, large epidemics can happen even if ℛ0<1. But like in a constant environment, the final epidemic s...