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The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on th...
Andrade, João SousaWill the current crisis accelerate the PIGS collapse? We approach the subject by comparing the responses of the unemployment rate to an output shock on those economies (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) with those of a benchmark economy – the USA. Our methodological strategy relies on one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics the Okun Law (OL) which we incorporated in a VAR model. We addressed two drawbac...
Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on t...
Duarte, António Portugal; Andrade, João Sousa; Duarte, AdelaideThe aim of this study is to assess to what extent the Portuguese participation in the European Monetary System (EMS) has been characterized by mean reverting behaviour, as predicted by the exchange rate target zone model developed by Krugman (1991). For this purpose, a new class of mean reversion tests is introduced. The empirical analysis of mean reversion in the Portuguese exchange rate shows that most of the...
The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on th...
Andrade, João SousaWill the current crisis accelerate the PIGS collapse? We approach the subject by comparing the responses of the unemployment rate to an output shock on those economies (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) with those of a benchmark economy – the USA. Our methodological strategy relies on one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics the Okun Law (OL) which we incorporated in a VAR model. We addressed two drawbac...
A Política Monetária do BCE. Uma estratégia original para a estabilidade nominal
Andrade, João SousaNesta comunicação procurei mostrar a originalidade da política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE), a dificuldade de uma avaliação conclusiva da sua acção e o contexto teórico da sua intervenção. Também foi feita uma avaliação da sua capacidade de resposta à actual crise, assim como das perspectivas de alterações institucionais que o envolvem. Sempre que desejável foi feita a comparação com o caso norte-am...
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case
Duarte, António Portugal; Andrade, João Sousa; Duarte, AdelaideThis work examines the participation of the Portuguese economy in the ERM of the EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. The exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Krugman (1991) model. Using a M-GARCH model however we confirm that there is a trade-off between exch...
Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal
Andrade, João SousaWe know from experience that weak economic growth increases the unemployment rate. In 1962 Okun proposed to measure potential output in terms of unemployment gap. From this relation a direct link between increase in unemployment and output growth was deduced, known as the Okun Law. This Law is one of the pillars of empirical macroeconomics. One of the problems of this Law is the iteration between the variables ...
Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa – uma aplicação da tese de F-H...
Andrade, João SousaPretende-se estudar a mobilidade internacional do capital e a problemática associada da sustentabilidade externa, do ponto de vista da tese de Feldstein-Horioka (F-H), e aplicar esta tese à economia portuguesa. Partindo do princípio das vantagens da mobilidade internacional do capital, apresentamos numa primeira parte o contributo da tese de F-H. O seu contexto teórico assim como as críticas e extensões que ger...
Le Rôle de la Consommation Publique dans la Croissance: le cas de l'Union Europ...
Andrade, João Sousa; Duarte, Maria Adelaide Silva; Berthomieu, ClaudeLa réduction de la croissance économique pendant ces dernières années a provoqué un renouveau d'intérêt en ce qui concerne le poids de la présence de l'État, surtout dans les économie européennes. Il ne suffit pas d'insister sur le poids excessive de l'Etat. Il faut le prouver et dire jusqu'à tel point il est excessive. Ces questions doivent recevoir des réponses précises de l'analyse économique. Ce que nous av...
How the Gold Standard Functioned in Portugal: An Analysis of Some Macroeconomic...
Duarte, António Portugal; Andrade, João SousaThe purpose of this study is to improve understanding of the gold standard period in Portugal through comparison with other monetary systems that were operated afterwards. Portugal was the first country in Europe to join Great Britain in the gold standard, in 1854, and it adhered to it for quite a long time. The principle of free gold convertibility of the Portuguese currency at a fixed price was abandoned in...
Régimes Monétaires et Théorie Quantitative du Produit Nominal au Portugal (1854...
Andrade, João SousaL’économie portugaise, comme d’ailleurs d’autres économies occidentales, a connu différents régimes monétaires depuis la moitié du XXe siècle. Nous voulons savoir si la théorie quantitative de la monnaie appliquée au revenu nominal, et non aux prix, peut expliquer le comportement du revenu nominal dans différents régimes monétaires. Nous concentrons notre analyse sur les périodes suggérées par les historiens éc...
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