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What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?
Agnelllo, Luca; Castro, Vítor; Sousa, Ricardo M.This paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009. Relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes, we show that fiscal variables (such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt) and economic factors (such as the degree of openness, the inflation rate, the interest rate and per cap...
Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?
Agnelllo, Luca; Castro, Vítor; Sousa, Ricardo M.Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longe...
Fiscal adjustments and income inequality : a first assessment
Agnelllo, Luca; Sousa, Ricardo M.Using a statistical approach to identify fiscal adjustments, we find that fiscal consolidation appears to shorten the income gap. Fiscal austerity plans that succeed in bringing public debt to a sustainable path seem to be more likely to reduce inequality. Expansionary fiscal adjustments are particularly important to promote changes in the income distribution.
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