Autor(es):
Afonso, António 
; Sousa, Ricardo M.
Data: 2009
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2539
Origem: Repositório da UTL
Assunto(s): B-SVAR; fiscal policy; debt dynamics; Portugal
Detalhes do Documento
The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis
Descrição
In the last twenty years Portugal struggled to keep public finances under control, notably in containing primary spending. We use a new quarterly dataset covering 1979:1-2007:4, and estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to important "crowding-out" effects, by impacting negatively on private consumption and investment; and have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and the average cost of financing government debt. Positive government revenue shocks tend to have a negative impact on GDP; and lead to a fall in the price level. The evidence also shows the importance of explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model. Finally, a VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive government spending shocks lead to important "crowding-out" effects.
In the last twenty years Portugal struggled to keep public finances under control, notably in containing primary spending. We use a new quarterly dataset covering 1979:1-2007:4, and estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to important "crowding-out" effects, by impacting negatively on private consumption and investment; and have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and the average cost of financing government debt. Positive government revenue shocks tend to have a negative impact on GDP; and lead to a fall in the price level. The evidence also shows the importance of explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model. Finally, a VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive government spending shocks lead to important "crowding-out" effects.
Tipo de Documento
Outro
Idioma Inglês
Idioma Inglês
| Financiadores do RCAAP | |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
||