Author(s):
Afonso, António 
Date: 2009
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/1822
Origin: Repositório da UTL
Subject(s): Interest rates; Macro forecasts; European Union
Document details
Long-term government bond yelds and economic forecast : evidence for the EU
Description
I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts, and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP ratios, signalling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance in the market higher budget deficits.
I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts, and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP ratios, signalling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance in the market higher budget deficits.
Document Type
Other
Language English
Language English
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