Autor(es):
Matos, João Amaro de 
; Guerreiro, Ariel
Data: 2013
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11126
Origem: Repositório Institucional da UNL
Detalhes do Documento
Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process
Descrição
This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.
This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.
Tipo de Documento
Artigo
Idioma Inglês
Idioma Inglês
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