A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes

• Author(s): Gabriel, Vasco J. ; Sola, Martin ; Psaradakis, Zacharias
• Date: 2002
• Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/1476
• Origin: RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
• Subject(s): Cointegration; Hypothesis testing; Markov switching; Standardized residuals
• Document Type: Article
• Language: English

Description

In this paper we propose a simple method of testing for cointegration in models that allow for multiple shifts in the long-run relationship. The procedure consists of carrying out conventional residual-based tests with standardized residuals from an appropriate Markov switching model. Our Monte Carlo results show that standard tests work well, even though their asymptotic validity can be questioned because they are not based on least-squares residuals. An empirical application to the present-value model of stock prices is also discussed.