Monthly forecasts of the average wind speed in Portugal

• Author(s): Rio, João ; Simões, T. ; Estanqueiro, Ana
• Date: 2006
• Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/1954
• Origin: Repositório do LNEG
• Subject(s): Wind speed; Monthly forecast; Vento--Velocidade; Energia eólica
• Document Type: Conference Object
• Language: English

Description

Forecasts of the monthly anomaly of the average wind speed can provide useful information for energy management and production. Unlike methods which use state-of-the art highly complex dynamic or statistic models, this study presents a methodology based on analogues. This simple method identifies similar weather patterns using past observations to produce a forecast and relies on the fact that the atmosphere has a limited number of preferred weather patterns. The forecast is provided as the most likely category and its skill is assessed against persistence. Results are shown only in an area limited to Portugal and the nearby Atlantic ocean.