Descrição
In this paper, the calibration and prediction capacity of a supply
response positive mathematical programming model (PMP) for the Alentejo
region are evaluated. The model is calibrated with prices and agricultural
subsidies of the base year (2000), using the specification rules of the cost
function standard, Paris standard, average cost and exogenous elasticities.
Then, the model is utilised for prediction of crop and livestock supply with
prices and subsidies of 2004. Model results for 2000 and 2004 agricultural
price and subsidies are compared, with available data, regarding optimal
combination of activities to test model’s capacity to reproduce Alentejo
agricultural sector behaviour in response to the changes in prices and
agricultural policy. Results showed that the PMP model reproduces exactly the
observed activity levels on the base year, whatever the rule used to specify
the cost function, and that PMP is an efficient instrument to predict agricultural
supply, mainly using the exogenous elasticities specification rule.
; Carvalho, Maria Leonor da Silva 
